Decomposing Rural-Urban Inequalities in Adolescent Fertility in Tanzania: Evidence from the 2022 Tanzania Population and Housing Census

Abstract

Adolescent fertility remains a major public health and demographic concern in many developing countries, including Tanzania. This study examines the determinants of adolescent fertility and quantifies the contribution of socio-economic and demographic factors to rural–urban disparities in adolescent childbearing in Tanzania. The study uses data from the 2022 Tanzania Population and Housing Census. It applies the Fairlie decomposition technique to explain the extent to which differences in characteristics between rural and urban adolescents account for the observed fertility gap. The results show that several factors significantly influence adolescent fertility, including the adolescent's age, marital status, education level, household wealth, household size, age of the household head, education level of the household head, and sex of the household head. Marital status and age of adolescents are the strongest predictors of adolescent childbearing, indicating that early marriage substantially increases the likelihood of early fertility. Higher educational attainment and improved household wealth are associated with a lower probability of adolescent childbearing. The decomposition results reveal that adolescents in rural areas are significantly more likely to have given birth compared to their urban counterparts. Differences in household wealth, marital status of adolescents, and education level of adolescents explain a large proportion of the rural–urban fertility gap. The findings highlight the importance of addressing socio-economic inequalities, expanding educational opportunities for girls, delaying early marriage, and improving access to adolescent-friendly reproductive health services. Targeted interventions focusing on rural communities are essential to reduce adolescent fertility and narrow rural–urban disparities in Tanzania.