Abstract
Contribution of agricultural share to GDP has been declining from 42% in year 1990 to 26.5% in 2023 in Tanzania, posing a necessity to assess impact of agricultural sub-sectors’ value added on national income from 1990 to 2023 meanwhile testing the causal effect of the 2013 National Agriculture Policy. The study applied ADF unit root test to test of stationarity, Johansen test for co-integration, and Granger causality test for analysis. Results showed that in the long-run, value added by crop production, livestock production, fishing production influenced negatively GDP, while inflation influenced positively GDP. Furthermore, in short-run, value added by value added by crop sub-sector continued to influence negatively GDP while presence of the 2013 national agricultural policy influenced positively GDP. Also, results from Granger causality test showed that there was a bi-directional relationship between inflation and GDP; and uni-directional relationship between agricultural policy and GDP. The study recommended the need to intensify contribution of every agriculture sub-sector through re-designing profitable value chain activities which will promote GDP growth.
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