Abstract
This study examines the determinants of coffee export performance in Tanzania using secondary annual time series data collected from NBS spanning the years 1991 to 2024. Specifically, the analysis employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate the long run effects of four key variables: real producer price, relative export price to producer price, inflation, and the exchange rate on the volume of coffee exports. Furthermore, an ARIMA (1,1,3) model was utilized to forecast export trends up to the year 2030. The results indicated the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship between coffee export volume and the selected variables. The study findings shows that, the exchange rate had a positive and statistically significant impact on coffee exports, implying that depreciation of the Tanzanian shilling enhances competitiveness in international markets. Conversely, the relative export price to producer price exhibited a negative and significant effect, suggesting weak price transmission and limited benefits to farmers from export gains. Meanwhile, real producer price and inflation showed no significant long-run effects. The error correction term was correctly signed and highly significant, confirming a strong tendency toward long-run equilibrium after short-run deviations. The study concludes that exchange rate management and improving producer price incentives are critical to enhancing coffee export performance. Structural interventions to ensure better price transmission and institutional support for smallholder farmers are also essential. These findings support Tanzania’s policy ambitions under Vision 2025, FYDP III, ASDP II, and global targets such as SDGs 2, 8, and 9
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