Abstract
Agriculture remains central to Africa’s development aspirations as outlined in Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in eradicating poverty and hunger. In Tanzania, despite efforts to enhance productivity, farm incomes remain low, with limited empirical focus on pre-harvest losses, a critical yet underexplored constraint. This study investigates the impact of pre-harvest losses on farm income among maize and paddy farming households in Tanzania, using data from the 2019/2020 National Panel Survey (NPS Wave 5). Guided by the Agricultural Household Model (AHM), the study employed a Robust Linear Mixed Effects Regression Model to account for data heterogeneity, outliers, and hierarchical structure. The response variable, farm income, was proxied by the log-transformed value of crop harvests. Key explanatory variables included pre-harvest loss, agronomic practices, and household-level characteristics, with soil type, crop type, and location (strata) modeled as random effects. Findings reveal a significant negative association between pre-harvest losses and maize income, highlighting the adverse effects of inadequate crop management during production. While the effect on paddy income was statistically insignificant, the overall trend underscores the importance of addressing losses before harvest. Mechanization, inorganic fertilizer use, and improved seeds were positively associated with higher farm income, while hired labor showed a negative association, suggesting inefficiencies in labor use. Intercropping and organic fertilizer use had mixed or marginal effects depending on the crop. Based on the study findings, the study concludes that reducing pre-harvest losses is vital for improving farm incomes and recommends integrated strategies involving improved agronomic practices, access to quality inputs, targeted extension services, and investment in efficient irrigation and labor-saving technologies. These insights provide a critical foundation for agricultural policy reform focused on enhancing productivity and rural livelihoods in Tanzania.
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