Contribution of Agriculture Sub-Sectors to Gross Domestic Product in Tanzania Mainland 1993 – 2022

Abstract

The primary objective of this study was to assess the contribution of agricultural subsectors on Tanzania mainland GDP, highlighting their crucial role in fostering economic growth and development. This analysis utilized annual time series data from the National Bureau of Statistics, covering the period from 1993 to 2022.Augmented Dicker-Fuller and Zivot-Andrews approach to detect structural breaks and test for stationarity.

The long- and short-run relationships between GDP and the agriculture subsectors were examined in the study using the Vector Error Correction Model. The coefficient of ECT indicates that the rate of adjustment of GDP to its long-run equilibrium is 6.8% annually. Short-run parameters of lagged variables were not very informative. The effects of agriculture sub-sectors on gross domestic product (GDP) reveals that crop and fishery positively impacting GDP, while livestock and forestry had a negative insignificant impact. The study concluded there’s significant long-run relationships between GDP and the agricultural sub-sectors. Forecasts indicate positive growth trends for both GDP and the individual agricultural sub-sectors. The study recommends a vertically integrated policy approach to balance out the disparities among the sub-sectors.